Since the beginning of this year, the price of gold has continued to rise, and safe-haven assets such as gold have attracted much attention. Fund products such as gold ETFs and gold QDIIs have recently led the rise of similar products. The net value of many gold ETFs and gold QDIIs has increased by more than 9% in the past three months. In the face of the short-term rise in gold prices, some institutions admitted that gold assets may be slightly overbought in the short term, but in the medium and long term, the demand for additional gold purchases by global central banks has increased, and factors such as global “de-dollarization” have made precious metals likely to have upward momentum , It is recommended that investors deploy gold on dips.
Gold prices continue to rise
Recently, under the influence of factors such as the Fed’s policy easing expectations and banking industry risks, the international gold price has been rising all the way, and safe-haven assets such as gold have once again become one of the investment products that investors are most concerned about. Recently, gold-related topics such as “Institutions predict that the price of gold will reach a new high” rushed to Alipay’s hot discussion list, “Is there room for gold to rise?” “Can gold still be bought?” and other topics have become investors’ concerns .
According to Wind data, London gold has recently hit a new high in recent years, once exceeding 460 yuan/g. Although it has corrected recently, it is still at a historical high. COMEX gold once exceeded $2,080 per ounce, which is also at a historical high. As of May 11 this year, COMEX gold has risen by 10.64% this year.
Driven by the soaring international gold price, the net value of gold ETFs has also risen. According to Wind statistics, as of May 12, in the past three months, gold ETFs have led the rise in commodity ETFs, and the net value of all gold ETFs has increased by more than 8%. Among them, in the past three months, Fuguo Shanghai Gold ETF had the highest net value increase, with a net value increase of 9.07%. In addition, five gold ETFs, including Huaan Gold ETF, Bosera Gold ETF, and CCB Shanghai Gold ETF, all had net value increases of more than 9% in the past three months.
Similarly, gold QDII also led the QDII fund. According to Wind data, as of May 12, in the past three months, among the QDII products in the whole market, the largest increase in net value was E Fund Gold Theme RMB A, with an increase of 12.04%. The net value of gold QDII such as gold LOF has increased by more than 9% in the past three months.
Can consider bargain layout
Regarding the recent sharp rise in gold prices, Bosera Fund analysis pointed out that the Federal Reserve deleted the words in the previous statement that “additional tightening policies are appropriate” at the press conference on the interest rate meeting, which seems to imply that the financial system Under the pressure of stability, the current round of Fed rate hike cycle has come to an end. This has encouraged the gold market. “Different from the market’s mainstream expectations, we prefer that the Fed will maintain the current interest rate level for a period of time to observe the actual performance of inflation and economic data, rather than switching to a cycle of interest rate cuts soon. From this perspective, gold assets are short-term It is suspected of being overbought slightly, because the loose expectation of this part has been included in the previous price performance, and there is a certain degree of preemption.”
However, Bosera Fund also stated that gold once fell below $2,000 per ounce but quickly regained its stability, which proves that the underlying support is relatively abundant. In the first week of May, the holdings of SPDR Gold ETF, the world’s largest gold ETF, unexpectedly increased by 8 tons. The People’s Bank of China increased its holdings of gold for the sixth consecutive month. Global central banks purchased 228 tons in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 167%. These all show that the allocation tendency of medium and long-term funds to gold assets continues unabated, and the short-term adjustment process of gold assets has a higher probability of shocks instead of declines.
Looking ahead, Guotai Fund believes that economic growth is sluggish, the Fed’s interest rate hike has peaked, and the expectation of “loosening + recession” is positive for gold prices; in addition, the continued inversion of the U.S. bond yield curve is also increasing liquidity risks in the global financial circle. Frequent risk events and hedging demand have also brought medium-term support to precious metal prices. It should be noted that strong employment data may lead to inflation stickiness, which may constrain the Fed’s steering; while the current gold price has already reflected the expectation of short-term risk aversion and peak interest rate hikes. The current gold price is approaching historical highs, and there may be short-term There is a certain risk of shock and callback. In the medium and long term, the general trend of global economic recession, the increasing demand for additional gold purchases by global central banks, and the trend of global “de-dollarization” make gold likely to become a new round of pricing anchors. These three factors make precious metals likely to have upward momentum , if there is a callback, you can consider bargain hunting.
Lion Fund stated that the unexpected times and impact of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy are shrinking, and the aftermath of interest rate hikes is more precisely occurring, and the impact of interest rate hikes on the US economy, corporate profits and financial markets has begun to be reflected one by one. A series of recent incidents of financial institutions will make the monetary policies of European and American central banks be counterbalanced by demands for financial stability, and the medium and long-term investment logic of the gold market will begin to be interpreted. It is recommended that investors actively pay attention to the recent trend of gold prices, so as to seize gold investment opportunities at a better time to enter the market.
