Strategists at Citi and UBS raised their gold price forecasts on Thursday, signaling a continuation of the precious metal’s bullish trajectory.
UBS has increased its 12-month gold forecast to $3,000 per ounce, following the bullion’s surge past its previous prediction of $2,850 per ounce. As of now, gold is trading at approximately $2,870 per ounce, reaching new all-time highs. UBS attributes this increase to concerns over tariffs and a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve since mid-December.
UBS strategists, led by Mark Haefele, noted in a report, “While we acknowledge that the current spot price of $2,870 per ounce is above our fair-value estimate, gold’s enduring appeal as a store of value and hedge against uncertainty has again proven itself.” The firm anticipates that gold will continue its upward momentum throughout the year, driven by a global rate-cutting cycle, ongoing economic uncertainty, and robust demand from both investors and central banks.
Meanwhile, Citi has also revised its gold price outlook. The firm raised its short-term target to $3,000 per ounce and increased its 2025 average forecast to $2,900 per ounce from $2,800. Citi highlights the continued strength of the gold bull market under the Trump administration, with trade wars, geopolitical tensions, and global growth concerns likely to fuel demand from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and over-the-counter (OTC) investments.
“The gold bull market looks set to continue under Trump 2.0, with trade wars and geopolitical tensions reinforcing the reserve diversification and de-dollarization trend, which supports emerging market (EM) official sector gold demand,” Citi’s report stated.
Citi’s analysis suggests that, while there is a possibility of a Russia/Ukraine peace deal and uncertainty around gold’s role in broader tariffs, the metal’s price is expected to remain strong. The firm does not anticipate gold being included in any blanket tariffs in the second quarter of 2025, noting that gold is considered a financial asset and, in the case of U.S. gold coins, legal tender. However, Citi warns that if initial communications about potential tariffs do not explicitly exempt gold, or if the metal is subject to such tariffs, U.S. premiums could spike.
As of February 5, gold markets estimate a 20% chance of President Trump including gold in a 10% blanket tariff on all U.S. imports, a much lower probability compared to other metals such as copper, silver, and platinum.
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