Goldman Sachs has raised its 2025 gold price forecast, citing strong demand and economic uncertainty. The investment bank now predicts the price of gold will reach $3,100 per ounce by the end of the year, up from a previous target of $2,890.
Goldman’s analysts attribute the price increase to “structurally higher” central bank demand, which is expected to contribute an additional 9% to the price of gold. ETF holdings are also seen as a contributing factor to the rise. However, the bank cautioned that ongoing concerns over President Trump’s tariff policies could present an “upside” risk to gold prices.
Goldman strategist Lina Thomas noted that, should policy uncertainty, including tariff concerns, remain elevated, speculative positioning could push gold prices as high as $3,300 an ounce by year-end.
Meanwhile, UBS has echoed Goldman’s outlook, forecasting gold prices could reach $3,200 per ounce. The firm emphasized that a stronger-than-expected rally in gold prices could be fueled by growing bullish sentiment, with gold being viewed as a safe-haven asset amid macroeconomic volatility.
As of early 2025, precious metals such as gold have been performing strongly, with investors increasingly turning to them as a hedge against market volatility driven by both the Trump administration’s policies and the Federal Reserve’s decisions. Gold prices have climbed 9.7% this year, currently trading around $2,925 an ounce, not far from their record highs. Over the past 12 months, gold has surged 43%, significantly outperforming major stock indices like the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average, which are up by 20% and 15%, respectively.
Other precious metals are also seeing significant gains, with silver prices rising more than 40% year-to-date and platinum up over 10%. The strong performance of gold has benefited related stocks, such as those of Barrick Gold, which has seen a 16% increase in share price this year. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF has also gained 10%.
Barrick Gold, a major player in the gold mining sector, reported its highest net earnings in a decade last year. The company also posted a robust 18% increase in fourth-quarter operating cash flow, which totaled $1.4 billion. For the year, operating cash flow reached $4.5 billion, the highest since 2020. Barrick Gold repurchased $500 million worth of shares and paid out $700 million in dividends. CEO Mark Bristow described gold as an increasingly important safe-haven asset in a geopolitically uncertain world, expressing optimism about the potential for further price increases.
Despite the optimism, some traders are cautioning that a short-term correction may be near. Michael Reinking, a strategist at the New York Stock Exchange, noted signs of potential exhaustion in gold’s recent price rally. Veteran trader Kenny Polcari echoed these concerns, suggesting that gold’s rapid ascent may be reaching its limit. “It feels a bit stretched…while I like gold as part of a portfolio, I am not chasing it up here,” Polcari stated.
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