Gold prices are experiencing a bout of volatility after pulling back from recent highs, as improving market sentiment and temporary tariff exemptions from the US-China trade standoff ease investor anxiety — at least for now. Yet, despite the short-term cool-down in haven demand, analysts and banks like Goldman Sachs remain bullish on gold’s long-term trajectory.
Short-Term Pullback Amid Positive Market Cues
Following a strong start in the Asian session, gold prices retraced to a low of $3,193 after the US market opened, as traders reacted to:
Tariff exemptions on Chinese tech products
Reassuring comments from US Commerce Secretary Lutnick, hinting that multiple countries are already in negotiation with the US
These developments provided a temporary boost to risk sentiment, reducing the urgency for haven assets like gold.
Goldman Sachs Sees $3,700+ in 2025
Despite the near-term choppiness, Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its 2025 year-end gold price forecast from $3,300 to $3,700, citing:
Robust central bank demand
Growing flows into gold ETFs, especially if recessionary signals intensify
A potential target of $3,880 per ounce if a recession materializes before year-end
This signals that macroeconomic tailwinds remain favorable for gold’s long-term prospects, even if the short-term sees some consolidation.
Technical Analysis: Signs of a Cooldown or a Setup for Next Leg Higher?
H1 Timeframe (1-hour chart):
Support is forming at $3,195, where gold has printed a higher low, suggesting bullish structure may remain intact.
$3,250 is now the immediate resistance target — a potential breakout zone.
A candle close below $3,195 could trigger a move down to $3,167, the next notable support area.
RSI Indicator (Period-14):
The RSI has dipped below 70, exiting the overbought zone — a possible sign of waning momentum.
However, unless RSI breaks below 50 decisively, bulls may still hold control.
Parabolic Trend Caution:
The steep climb from April 9’s lows has been nearly parabolic, often a precursor to at least a minor retracement or consolidation phase.
If consolidation holds above $3,195 and bullish momentum resumes, gold could re-challenge all-time highs.
The Bottom Line
Gold is currently caught between shifting sentiment in the short-term and strong macroeconomic fundamentals for the long-term. While a dip below $3,195 could spark a quick correction, broader support from central banks and safe-haven demand means any pullbacks may remain shallow.
| Scenario | Trigger | Target |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish | Hold above $3,195 and push past $3,250 | $3,268 → $3,300+ |
| Bearish | Break below $3,195 (H1 close) | $3,167 → $3,140 |
Investors should brace for continued volatility as the market digests each new tariff-related headline, but long-term gold bulls may see the current range as a buying opportunity rather than a top.
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