On July 11th, according to the analysis of Everbright Futures, overnight spot gold first fell and then rose, and the price closed up around $1,925/oz; spot silver also fell first and then rose, and the price closed up 0.23% to $23.13/oz. The market is waiting for the US inflation data to predict the Fed‘s follow-up actions.
Judging from the recent statements of Fed officials, support for raising interest rates is still in the majority, but they also believe that raising interest rates is close to the peak. The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in July has reached more than 90%, which means that the market is close to fully releasing the risk of raising interest rates in July. The decline of gold may be suspended, and there may be a certain rebound in the short term.
However, from the perspective of the probability of raising interest rates, the probability of continuing to raise interest rates in September is not high, that is, the market is not consistent on whether to raise interest rates in the future, which also brings additional uncertainty. The market in September (after raising the interest rate by 75 basis points in July 2022, the market expects the rate hike to slow down to 50 basis points in September) needs attention.
