Gold is on track to surpass $3000 per Troy ounce for the first time in history by 2025, according to the latest forecast from BullionVault. The survey, which polled over 1,400 precious metal investors, predicts this milestone despite a remarkable 2024 in which gold outperformed most other assets, only trailing Bitcoin in returns.
The forecast, derived from the collective insight of BullionVault users, anticipates silver will perform even better. The survey’s respondents expect silver to hit a record $36.80 per ounce by the end of 2025, marking a notable rise from current levels.
This marks the 18th year of gains for gold in the 21st century, with a 26.4% increase in 2024, its strongest rise since 2007. The precious metal has been driven to new highs not only by increased demand from major consumer markets such as China and India but also by substantial purchases from private investors and central banks.
BullionVault’s twice-annual survey has been conducted since 2014, gathering investor sentiment on the future of precious metals. This month’s survey reflects growing concerns about global geopolitics and government debt, which are fueling optimism for gold and silver in the coming year.
Geopolitics and Government Debt: Key Drivers
A significant shift in market sentiment is reflected in the survey’s findings. Geopolitics has overtaken monetary policy as the primary concern for investors, with 31.4% citing it as the most important factor influencing precious metal prices in 2025. Concerns about government debt and budget deficits also rank high, with 20.8% of respondents emphasizing these risks. This marks the first time since 2022 that geopolitics has taken precedence over monetary policy in driving price predictions.
Looking longer term, government debt remains a significant threat to the global economy. More than a quarter (28.5%) of respondents believe unfunded government spending will be the biggest challenge for investors over the next 25 years. The risk of geopolitical conflict, particularly between major powers, is also a looming concern for 17.5% of participants.
Silver’s Strong Performance and Future Outlook
Silver is projected to rise even more dramatically than gold, with the forecasted end-of-2025 price of $36.80 representing a 26.9% increase from current levels. While these gains might seem ambitious, silver has already demonstrated strong performance in 2024, marking its 15th consecutive annual increase with a 21.9% rise, and reaching new 13-year highs. This surge has led investors to adjust their year-end price target for silver to nearly $34.50 per ounce, slightly higher than earlier estimates.
Despite these positive trends, the path for precious metals remains uncertain, and past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. As the market braces for the coming year, expectations for further gains are tempered by the unpredictable nature of the global economy and regulatory environments.
Looking Ahead: The Long-Term Outlook for Precious Metals
The 2024 forecast marks a continuation of trends that have driven gold and silver to new highs since the turn of the millennium. Twenty-five years ago, gold was largely sidelined as an investment, unloved by central banks and facing weak demand following the Asian financial crisis. However, a series of positive shocks—including changes in central bank policies and increased consumer demand—have since propelled gold to the forefront of investment strategies.
For the next few years, at least, geopolitical instability and rising government debt appear poised to continue driving demand for both gold and silver. The latest survey from BullionVault suggests these precious metals will remain attractive investments, with the potential for further growth as global financial pressures persist.
As BullionVault’s survey demonstrates, gold and silver are expected to remain key players in the investment landscape through 2025, with prices likely to continue rising as the global economy grapples with these long-term challenges.
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