Gold prices remained relatively steady on Thursday, March 28, hovering near the $3,000 mark as traders digested news surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump’s upcoming tariff announcements and the broader economic outlook. As of 22:00 GMT, XAU/USD was trading at $3,019, nearly unchanged from earlier levels, despite some fluctuations in market sentiment.
The slight decline in gold’s price was attributed to a recovery in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which had earlier dropped to a low of 104.18 but rebounded to 104.55, reflecting a 0.32% increase. This recovery in the dollar was triggered by the White House’s announcement that President Trump would unveil his plans for new automobile tariffs, further stoking uncertainty around global trade. According to The Wall Street Journal, Trump is considering implementing limited tariff measures, particularly targeting the automotive sector, which could fuel inflation and deepen trade tensions.
Despite the downward pressure from the dollar’s recovery, gold held firm above the critical $3,000 support level, keeping bullish sentiment intact among traders. Many remain hopeful that the precious metal could push higher, especially given the broader economic uncertainties driven by U.S. trade policy and inflation concerns.
In the economic data space, the U.S. Durable Goods Orders for February came in solid, with a monthly increase of 0.9%, defying expectations of a 1% decline. Core Durable Goods Orders, which exclude volatile transportation items, also showed resilience, climbing 0.7% month-on-month, well above the expected 0.2% rise. This robust performance in durable goods orders suggests that business investment remains strong, even amid concerns about a global economic slowdown.
On the monetary policy front, Federal Reserve officials continued to voice their perspectives on inflation and interest rates. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem commented that the labor market is approaching full employment, and with inflation remaining above the target, current policy remains appropriate. He acknowledged that the risks of inflation rising further or remaining above the 2% target were increasing but didn’t foresee an imminent recession.
Meanwhile, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted that the central bank has made significant progress in curbing inflation but emphasized that more work remains. Kashkari expressed confidence that within the next year or two, the Fed could begin reducing interest rates. Markets have priced in 64.5 basis points of Fed easing for 2025, signaling expectations of future rate cuts, which tend to benefit gold as a non-yielding asset.
Traders are also awaiting the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index—due later this week. The data could provide more clarity on the inflation trajectory and the potential path for U.S. interest rates.
Gold Price Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch
The technical outlook for gold remains somewhat choppy, with the precious metal caught between the $3,000 support level and the recent highs of $3,036. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a slightly bullish tone but has flattened recently, indicating that downward momentum may be losing steam. A breakout above the current week’s high of $3,036 could push prices toward the record high of $3,057, and potentially test the $3,100 mark.
On the other hand, if gold fails to hold the $3,000 level, it could see a pullback towards the February 24 swing high at $2,956, followed by the $2,900 mark and the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,887.
With economic data, geopolitical risks, and central bank policies continuing to drive market dynamics, traders will be closely monitoring any developments that could push gold towards new highs or test the lower support levels.
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