Gold prices have soared past the $3,100 per ounce mark, setting a new all-time high due to heightened global financial uncertainty. The precious metal’s surge is being fueled by strong safe-haven demand, particularly amid concerns over Trump’s trade war, geopolitical tensions, and recession fears.
What’s Driving Gold’s Rally?
Trump’s Tariff Plans:
The upcoming April 2 reciprocal tariff announcement could lead to higher trade tariffs on multiple countries.
Trump has also threatened secondary sanctions on Russian oil (25-50% tariffs) and possible tariffs/airstrikes on Iran if a nuclear deal isn’t reached.
Global Financial Uncertainty:
Rising inflationary pressures and concerns over stagflation in the U.S. are pushing investors toward gold.
Central banks and institutional investors continue to stockpile gold, further supporting prices.
Silver’s Strong Performance:
Silver is following gold’s rally, reaching $34 per ounce, its highest level since October 2024.
Silver has gained 36% year-over-year, compared to gold’s 38% increase.
How High Can Gold Go in 2025?
According to Bank of America (BofA):
2025 Gold Price Forecast: $3,063/oz (up from an earlier prediction of $2,750/oz).
2026 Gold Price Forecast: $3,350/oz (up from $2,625/oz).
BofA believes that continued U.S. trade policy uncertainty will sustain higher gold prices. However, key downside risks include:
U.S. fiscal consolidation (if government spending tightens).
Lower geopolitical tensions (if trade relations stabilize).
More targeted tariffs (rather than blanket trade wars).
Short-Term Price Outlook
Market analysts suggest that gold could reach $3,200/oz soon, with a potential spike above this level becoming increasingly probable.
Gold’s rally appears to be in its final leg before an April peak, based on technical indicators like the 10-week EMA envelope.
Indian Gold Price Outlook
24-carat gold price in India: ₹89,160 per 10 grams.
The 1-year gain in gold prices: +38%.
Will gold reach ₹1,00,000 per 10g?
If global economic risks persist and the Indian rupee depreciates, this milestone is possible but not guaranteed in 2025.
Conclusion
The gold price rally is primarily news-driven, with geopolitical risks and trade tensions as the key catalysts. While a short-term correction cannot be ruled out, gold’s long-term outlook remains bullish, especially if uncertainty persists. Whether gold or silver will be the better bet depends on economic conditions, inflation trends, and investor sentiment in the coming months.
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