Gold prices in Vietnam have surged to record highs, reflecting the strong upward momentum in global gold markets. As of April 1, 2025, the Saigon Jewelry Company (SJC) listed gold bar prices between 100.3 to 102.3 million VND per tael, marking a 500,000 VND increase in both buying and selling prices compared to the previous day. Plain rings also saw an increase of 400,000 VND per tael, with some brands reporting prices exceeding 102 million VND per tael.
This sharp rise in gold prices follows the global gold market‘s recent surge, with gold trading at 3,138 USD per ounce globally, translating to about 97.4 million VND per tael. However, domestic gold prices are still running higher than global prices by nearly 5 million VND per tael, reflecting the growing demand and local market conditions.
Factors Driving the Surge in Gold Prices
The dramatic rise in gold prices can be attributed to several key factors:
Tariff Concerns and Geopolitical Tensions: As the U.S. President Donald Trump prepares to announce new tariffs, concerns about the potential impact on global trade and the economy have spurred demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Investors are hedging against the uncertainty stemming from possible trade disruptions, particularly between major global powers.
Strong Central Bank Demand: Central banks around the world continue to accumulate gold as a reserve asset, further bolstering demand. This trend has been particularly evident in the first quarter of 2025, contributing to upward pressure on gold prices.
Expectations of Rate Cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve: Financial markets are anticipating that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates later in the year due to slowing economic growth, which could reduce yields on other assets and make gold even more attractive.
Geopolitical Instability: Ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Europe have added to the demand for safe-haven assets like gold. These factors, combined with the tariff-related concerns, have led to gold reaching its highest levels in decades.
Vietnam’s Gold Market: Premiums and Risks
The price difference between buying and selling in the domestic market is currently around 2 million VND per tael, indicating a relatively high premium. Experts estimate that investors who purchased gold at the start of the year could see a profit of nearly 20% if they sell now.
However, experts warn that the current price spread between buying and selling poses risks for potential buyers. The heightened demand and limited supply have also led to instances of fraud, with counterfeit gold being sold to unsuspecting consumers. Buyers are advised to be cautious and closely monitor market developments before making purchases.
Currency Dynamics and Market Influence
In parallel to rising gold prices, the VND/USD exchange rate has experienced some fluctuations. The central exchange rate is set at 24,835 VND per USD, while major commercial banks are selling USD at rates up to 25,857 VND per USD. The free market rate for USD/VND is holding steady at 25,860 to 25,960 VND per USD.
Despite the rising gold prices, oil prices have displayed mixed trends. WTI crude oil fell slightly by 10 cents to 71.48 USD per barrel, while Brent crude oil remained stable at 74.74 USD per barrel. The narrowing price gap between WTI and Brent has raised concerns about the viability of U.S. crude oil exports, which could further complicate energy market dynamics.
Conclusion
The gold market is experiencing an exceptional surge, driven by a combination of geopolitical tensions, tariff concerns, central bank buying, and expectations of rate cuts. As gold prices continue to hit record highs, particularly in Vietnam, the dynamics of supply and demand, along with the risks associated with high premiums, make the market complex. Investors and consumers alike should remain vigilant in the face of these uncertain conditions, monitoring not only the price trends but also the broader global economic and geopolitical factors at play.
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