Gold prices surged to an all-time high on Monday, reaching $3,245.75 per ounce, driven by escalating trade tensions, particularly the U.S. administration’s tariffs on China, which have now reached as high as 145%. This has led to a flight toward gold, traditionally considered a safe-haven asset during periods of economic uncertainty.
This marks nearly the 20th time this year that gold has broken records, having gained over 23%, or approximately $600, since January, when it stood at $2,658. The latest rally follows a series of sweeping tariff measures targeting 185 countries, with tariffs ranging from 10% to 49%. As gold continues to soar, oil prices, by contrast, remain sluggish amid growing recession fears.
U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell by 0.3%, reaching $61.34 per barrel, while international benchmark Brent crude saw a similar decline, slipping to $64.58 per barrel. Both benchmarks are hovering near five-year lows, reflecting a broader sentiment of market concern over the global economic outlook.
Gold Forecast to Rise Further, Oil Faces Decline
Goldman Sachs has revised its year-end 2025 gold forecast, raising it from $3,300 to $3,700 per ounce, driven by stronger-than-expected demand from central banks and increasing recession risks that are likely to boost ETF inflows. The investment bank now anticipates gold will trade between $3,650 and $3,950 per ounce, citing the metal’s sharp recovery following the April 2 sell-off triggered by new tariff announcements.
Swiss bank UBS also updated its gold forecast, raising its 2025 target from $3,200 to $3,500 per ounce. In a note on Friday, strategist Joni Teves pointed to heightened tariff uncertainty, weaker global growth, rising inflation, and ongoing geopolitical tensions as factors making gold more attractive to investors.
On the energy front, Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to remain under pressure due to high supply levels from OPEC+ and persistent recession fears. The bank forecasts that Brent and WTI crude will average $63 and $59 per barrel, respectively, in the second half of 2025, and will fall further to $58 and $55 per barrel in 2026. Oil demand is expected to grow only modestly, with an increase of 300,000 barrels per day through the end of next year.
Goldman Sachs has also revised its 2026 fourth-quarter global oil demand growth estimate, cutting it by 900,000 barrels per day due to the intensifying U.S.-China trade war. Even with possible inventory builds, the bank warns that expected surpluses of 800,000 barrels in 2025 and 1.4 million barrels in 2026 could weigh on prices. In a scenario where the global economy slows sharply or OPEC+ reverses its voluntary cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day, Brent crude could plunge to the $40 range or lower.
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