Goldman Sachs has revised its 2025 gold price forecast to $3,700 per ounce, citing escalating concerns over the U.S. economy, particularly amid the intensifying U.S.-China trade war. This is the third time this year the investment bank has raised its gold price outlook, following a similar adjustment in March, when it increased its target to $3,300 per ounce.
In a note published on Friday, Goldman Sachs warned that in an extreme scenario, gold prices could surge as high as $4,500 per ounce by the end of 2025. The bank emphasized that it is positioning gold as a hedge against rising recession risks in the U.S., noting a significant uptick in demand for both physical gold and gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in recent weeks.
The bank’s updated forecast comes amid a rapidly escalating trade conflict between the U.S. and China. Last week, the U.S. raised tariffs on Chinese imports to a cumulative 145%, provoking a retaliatory move by Beijing, which imposed tariffs of up to 125% on American goods. Although President Donald Trump temporarily postponed the imposition of additional tariffs on key U.S. trading partners, he moved forward with a 10% universal tariff and indicated that targeted tariffs on electronics and pharmaceuticals would be introduced soon.
The heightened trade tensions sent gold prices soaring to a record high of $3,245.69 per ounce last week, as both physical and ETF demand for the precious metal remained strong. Central banks, particularly those in Asia, have also been increasing their gold purchases in recent months, driven in part by fears of a potential U.S. recession.
Goldman Sachs has pointed to the increasing global economic uncertainty, especially under the current U.S. administration, as a key factor behind the rising demand for gold. The investment bank’s revised outlook reflects a growing consensus that gold is becoming an attractive asset in times of economic instability.
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