Gold prices remained stable on Friday, following a pullback from the all-time high of $3,358 as investors took profits during the extended Easter weekend. Despite this retreat, the price of gold continues to be supported by significant global uncertainties, including US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies on imports and ongoing geopolitical tensions, which reinforce gold’s status as a safe-haven asset.
The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) recent shift toward a more hawkish stance has added another layer of complexity to the gold market. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments on Thursday reduced expectations for a rate cut in June, potentially strengthening the US dollar and putting downward pressure on gold prices. Powell noted that a weak economy combined with high inflation could create a stagflationary environment, which may hinder the Fed’s policy goals. Additional commentary from Fed official Mary Daly is expected later on Friday, though lighter trading volumes are anticipated due to the Good Friday holiday.
Gold’s Performance on Good Friday
“Gold remains heavily supported by a broadly weaker dollar, uncertainty surrounding tariff announcements, and fears of a global recession,” said Lukman Otunuga, senior research analyst at FXTM, an online trading broker.
Meanwhile, recent economic data out of the US shows mixed signals. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending April 12 fell to 215,000, better than the previous week’s revised 224,000. However, Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ending April 5 rose by 41,000 to 1.885 million. Additionally, US Building Permits rose by 1.6% to 1.482 million in March, surpassing expectations, while Housing Starts decreased to 1.324 million in March from 1.494 million in February.
Money market traders have priced in nearly 86 basis points of Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025, with the first expected in July, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Gold Price Outlook: Bullish Bias with Caution
Despite the recent pullback, gold’s bullish outlook remains intact. The price continues to trade above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), signaling positive momentum. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has crossed the 70.00 threshold, suggesting that the market is overbought and caution is warranted for bulls. This may indicate a period of consolidation or a temporary sell-off.
The immediate resistance level for gold is at $3,355, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. If prices manage to hold above this level, they could advance towards the psychological $3,400 mark. On the downside, the low of $3,230 from April 18 serves as initial support for XAU/USD. A further decline could see support at $3,105, the low of April 2.
As gold remains caught between strong demand and market uncertainty, its price trajectory will depend on a mix of economic developments, central bank policies, and geopolitical factors in the coming weeks.
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