July 7th, data showed that the number of people filing for unemployment benefits rose during the survey period, and the four-week average has risen by nearly 20% in the past year, suggesting that the demand for employees in the U.S. job market continues to weaken.
Meanwhile, hiring continued to slow in June. Still, the cooling in the job market has been gradual rather than sudden.
As such, we believe June job creation remains strong at 245,000 and will keep a close eye on revisions to May’s figures. We expect the unemployment rate to fall back to 3.6% as measures of household employment are expected to rebound. The average hourly earnings trend is likely to be unchanged, with the monthly rate expected to record 0.3%, which would bring the annual rate down only slightly to 4.2%.
