Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce looks forward to the U.S. non-farm payrolls in June: U.S. bond yields may be under pressure

July 7th: Initial jobless claims jumped in early June, suggesting that the pace of hiring may have slowed to 185,000 for the month. This is also in line with recent declines in total hours worked in several industries, including information, manufacturing, retail, transportation and warehousing.

If the U.S. household survey showed a sharp drop in employment in May, the unemployment rate is likely to remain unchanged at 3.7 percent if the survey shows a return to growth, leaving room for further gains in employment without additional pressure on wages. down space.

Our hiring expectations are below market consensus, which could weigh on US Treasury yields.