ING looks forward to the US non-farm payrolls in June: strong job growth will slow down

July 7th, non-farm employment growth was very strong in May, reaching 339,000, but we expect a slowdown this month, approaching 225,000.

The unemployment rate jumped to 3.7% last month from 3.4% as household survey data painted a very different picture from employment data — households reported employment actually fell.

The rebound in the data in the June non-farm payrolls report is expected to reverse, falling to 3.6%. Meanwhile, growth in average hourly earnings should moderate, with another 0.3% MoM forecast, which would bring average hourly earnings down to 4.2% y/y.