BMO Capital Markets’ 33rd annual Global Metals, Mining & Critical Minerals Conference highlighted a subtle shift in investor sentiment within the commodity space. Copper emerged as the metal with the most potential for 2024, with supply-side issues and global grid upgrade spending garnering attention. While investor fatigue in waiting for copper price upside was noted, the focus is shifting towards potential supply recovery challenges in 2025.
BMO’s survey asked attendees about their preferred commodities for the next five years. Copper led the responses at 62%, a slight decrease from 2023. Gold secured the second spot, with 22% considering it a long-term asset, indicating a rise in attractiveness compared to the previous year’s 10%.
Interest in critical and battery metals experienced a surprising decline at the conference compared to the previous year. Despite last year’s dedicated space for this sector, there was less investor enthusiasm in 2024, particularly for lithium, nickel, and critical minerals.
Investors showcased a relatively neutral stance on gold prices. Half of the respondents expected gold to trade between $1,950 and $2,150 per ounce, while 32% were more bullish, predicting a range between $2,150 and $2,350 per ounce. A notable 11% anticipated gold prices exceeding $2,350 by year-end.
BMO analysts expressed surprise at investors’ perspectives on gold market drivers. While the U.S. dollar and interest rates received significant attention, central bank demand was largely overlooked. The analysts emphasized a shift in the historical correlation of gold to real rates and highlighted Chinese consumer demand as an underappreciated driver, expecting emerging market central bank net buying to support gold over the coming decade.
